Beyond the EV Headline

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The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 notes that battery factories in Europe and the United States rely on imports for the majority of their battery components, which come mostly from China, with Korea also playing a significant role as a supplier of cathode materials. The IEA's critical minerals research projects that mining of copper, nickel, and cobalt will become more concentrated over time, while lithium, graphite, and rare earth supply will remain relatively more diversified.
2025 was the year this concentration turned into a realised risk rather than a theoretical one. The Democratic Republic of Congo introduced a cobalt export quota, Zimbabwe restricted lithium exports, Mozambique restricted graphite exports, and in April 2025 China introduced export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements, which the IEA reports forced some automakers to cut production or pause operations entirely.
On the regulatory side, the EU's Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542, in force since August 2023, governs the entire battery lifecycle, including carbon footprint declarations, supply chain due diligence, recycled content, and a digital battery passport that becomes mandatory from 18 February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh. Separately, the European Commission's July 2023 proposal for a new End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation would replace the existing ELV Directive with binding circular design and recycled-content requirements for new vehicles.
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China's dominant position in refining lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths means an automaker's ESG exposure does not start at the assembly line; it starts several tiers back in a supply chain it often does not directly control. The April 2025 export controls, which the IEA links to production cuts and pauses at some automakers, show this is an active operating risk, not a modeled scenario.
The EU Battery Regulation's carbon footprint declaration and due diligence requirements exist precisely because a battery's embedded production emissions and mineral sourcing are material regardless of what happens at the tailpipe. Once the digital battery passport becomes mandatory in February 2027, automakers will need documented, auditable data on sourcing and footprint that most do not currently have to disclose.
The proposed ELV Regulation would require new vehicles to contain a rising share of recycled plastic, reaching 25% within a decade of the regulation's entry into force under the Council's staged approach, and would require batteries and electric motors to be designed for easy removal and reuse. These are design-stage decisions, not end-of-pipe fixes, which means the ESG transition now reaches into vehicle engineering itself.
Because battery production carries its own embedded emissions and mineral-sourcing footprint, which is exactly what the EU's carbon footprint declaration requirement is designed to capture, an EV fleet still carries meaningful upstream ESG exposure that the tailpipe-emissions framing alone does not account for.
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Since the IEA projects copper, nickel, and cobalt supply becoming more concentrated while lithium, graphite, and rare earths stay relatively more diversified, treat each critical mineral as its own exposure to assess, rather than lumping them into a single supply chain risk line.
With the digital battery passport mandatory from February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh, building the underlying data collection across plants and suppliers needs to start well before that deadline, not in the year leading up to it.
Because the proposed recycled-content and battery-removability requirements would apply to newly type-approved vehicles from the regulation's entry into force, design decisions made today will determine compliance years before the rules are finalised.
Given the documented 2025 disruptions, from the DRC's cobalt export quota to China's rare earth export controls, mineral sourcing due diligence belongs in the same risk management process as any other supply continuity issue, not a separate ESG-only workstream.
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The automotive ESG transition is not a single metric to track, whether that is EV sales share or tailpipe emissions. It runs from where minerals are refined, through how batteries are documented and disclosed, to how the vehicle itself is designed to be taken apart and reused.
As battery passport requirements take effect and end-of-life vehicle rules move from proposal to regulation, the automakers and suppliers that have already mapped their exposure across each of these fronts will be the ones adapting on schedule, rather than scrambling once the deadlines arrive.
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Because China refines the large majority of the world's lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth supply, and its April 2025 export controls on rare earths forced some automakers to cut production or halt operations, according to the IEA.
Carbon footprint declarations, supply chain due diligence, recycled content rules, and a digital battery passport, mandatory from 18 February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh.
A July 2023 European Commission proposal that would set binding recycled-content and circular design requirements for new vehicles, replacing the existing ELV Directive.
No; EV batteries carry their own embedded production emissions and mineral-sourcing footprint, which is what the EU's carbon footprint declaration requirement is designed to capture.
Up to 25% under the Council's staged approach, phased in over roughly a decade from the regulation's entry into force.
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