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The Parts of the Transition the EV Headline Leaves Out

Part 01

The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 notes that battery factories in Europe and the United States rely on imports for the majority of their battery components, which come mostly from China, with Korea also playing a significant role as a supplier of cathode materials. The IEA's critical minerals research projects that mining of copper, nickel, and cobalt will become more concentrated over time, while lithium, graphite, and rare earth supply will remain relatively more diversified.

2025 was the year this concentration turned into a realised risk rather than a theoretical one. The Democratic Republic of Congo introduced a cobalt export quota, Zimbabwe restricted lithium exports, Mozambique restricted graphite exports, and in April 2025 China introduced export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements, which the IEA reports forced some automakers to cut production or pause operations entirely.

On the regulatory side, the EU's Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542, in force since August 2023, governs the entire battery lifecycle, including carbon footprint declarations, supply chain due diligence, recycled content, and a digital battery passport that becomes mandatory from 18 February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh. Separately, the European Commission's July 2023 proposal for a new End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation would replace the existing ELV Directive with binding circular design and recycled-content requirements for new vehicles.

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What This Means for the Industry's ESG Exposure?

Part 02

Battery mineral supply concentrates risk upstream of every EV

China's dominant position in refining lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths means an automaker's ESG exposure does not start at the assembly line; it starts several tiers back in a supply chain it often does not directly control. The April 2025 export controls, which the IEA links to production cuts and pauses at some automakers, show this is an active operating risk, not a modeled scenario.

Battery regulation is shifting scrutiny from the vehicle to its full lifecycle

The EU Battery Regulation's carbon footprint declaration and due diligence requirements exist precisely because a battery's embedded production emissions and mineral sourcing are material regardless of what happens at the tailpipe. Once the digital battery passport becomes mandatory in February 2027, automakers will need documented, auditable data on sourcing and footprint that most do not currently have to disclose.

End-of-life design requirements pull ESG scrutiny back before the vehicle is even built

The proposed ELV Regulation would require new vehicles to contain a rising share of recycled plastic, reaching 25% within a decade of the regulation's entry into force under the Council's staged approach, and would require batteries and electric motors to be designed for easy removal and reuse. These are design-stage decisions, not end-of-pipe fixes, which means the ESG transition now reaches into vehicle engineering itself.

Switching to electric does not, by itself, resolve an automaker's ESG exposure

Because battery production carries its own embedded emissions and mineral-sourcing footprint, which is exactly what the EU's carbon footprint declaration requirement is designed to capture, an EV fleet still carries meaningful upstream ESG exposure that the tailpipe-emissions framing alone does not account for.

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What Automakers and Suppliers Should Do Now?

Part 03

Map sourcing concentration risk mineral by mineral, not as one category

Since the IEA projects copper, nickel, and cobalt supply becoming more concentrated while lithium, graphite, and rare earths stay relatively more diversified, treat each critical mineral as its own exposure to assess, rather than lumping them into a single supply chain risk line.

Start battery carbon footprint and passport data collection now

With the digital battery passport mandatory from February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh, building the underlying data collection across plants and suppliers needs to start well before that deadline, not in the year leading up to it.

Track the ELV Regulation while it is still a proposal

Because the proposed recycled-content and battery-removability requirements would apply to newly type-approved vehicles from the regulation's entry into force, design decisions made today will determine compliance years before the rules are finalised.

Treat critical mineral due diligence as core supply chain risk management

Given the documented 2025 disruptions, from the DRC's cobalt export quota to China's rare earth export controls, mineral sourcing due diligence belongs in the same risk management process as any other supply continuity issue, not a separate ESG-only workstream.

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Conclusion

Part 04

The automotive ESG transition is not a single metric to track, whether that is EV sales share or tailpipe emissions. It runs from where minerals are refined, through how batteries are documented and disclosed, to how the vehicle itself is designed to be taken apart and reused.

As battery passport requirements take effect and end-of-life vehicle rules move from proposal to regulation, the automakers and suppliers that have already mapped their exposure across each of these fronts will be the ones adapting on schedule, rather than scrambling once the deadlines arrive.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Part 05

Why is critical mineral supply concentration a risk for automakers?

Because China refines the large majority of the world's lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth supply, and its April 2025 export controls on rare earths forced some automakers to cut production or halt operations, according to the IEA.

What does the EU Battery Regulation require for EV batteries?

Carbon footprint declarations, supply chain due diligence, recycled content rules, and a digital battery passport, mandatory from 18 February 2027 for EV batteries and industrial batteries above 2 kWh.

What is the proposed EU End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation?

A July 2023 European Commission proposal that would set binding recycled-content and circular design requirements for new vehicles, replacing the existing ELV Directive.

Does switching to EVs eliminate an automaker's supply chain ESG exposure?

No; EV batteries carry their own embedded production emissions and mineral-sourcing footprint, which is what the EU's carbon footprint declaration requirement is designed to capture.

How much recycled plastic would new vehicles need under the proposed ELV Regulation?

Up to 25% under the Council's staged approach, phased in over roughly a decade from the regulation's entry into force.

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